← 2013 JL14All rocks322756 2001 CK32 →
At a glance
- Width
- 28 to 62 m
- about 225 bananas
- Speed
- 17.02 km/s
- 61,254 km/h · 38,062 mph
- Misses us by
- 167.1 lunar
- 64,270,993 km · 39,936,131 miles
- First spotted by us
- 13th November 2026
- 8 page views
How far is "close"?
Same gap, ranked against places you have heard of, on a log scale because the Sun is awkwardly far away.
How big is it, really?
NASA only estimates the width, so we show the biggest guess. Log scale again. Everest is just there to make everything else look reasonable.
How fast is it going?
Speed relative to Earth at closest approach. The International Space Station is the fastest thing most of us will ever stand under. This lot would lap it.
If it hit (it will not)
Rough impact energy at the biggest size estimate, assuming solid rock, in tonnes, kilotons and megatons of TNT, which is how everyone who has to do this maths measures it. Treat it as a ballpark. The point stands: no impact is scheduled.
Where it actually lives
A top-down view of the orbit, to scale, with Earth's and Mars's orbits for company. The tilt of the orbit is ignored, so treat the shape as right and the exact position as roughly right. The Sun is the orange dot in the middle.
- Orbit class
- APOApollo: crosses Earth's orbit, but spends most of its time further out than us. The most common troublemaker type.
- Year length
- 1.12 Earth years (409 days)One lap of the Sun. Your commute is shorter, and so is your patience.
- Eccentricity
- 0.122How squashed the orbit is. 0 is a perfect circle, 1 is "leaving". This one is nearly circular and well behaved.
- Tilt
- 11.5°The angle of its orbit against the flat plane the planets share. Slightly tipsy.
- Closest to the Sun
- 0.95 AU142 million km. One AU is the distance from Earth to the Sun.
- Furthest from the Sun
- 1.21 AU181 million km. Never leaves the inner solar system.
- Closest orbit-to-orbit gap
- 0.012 AUIf you only compare the two orbits, not where the planets are, they come within 5 lunar distances. The rock is rarely there at the same time as us, which is the entire reason we are still here.
- Observations used
- 33NASA has measured this one 33 times. It has been stalked thoroughly.
- Watched for
- 23 days2016-11-25 to 2016-12-18. Not long, so the orbit is still being refined and the rock is still a bit of a stranger.
- Orbit uncertainty
- 7 out of 90 means we know exactly where it is going. 9 means a shrug. Lower is better.
Is it actually hazardous?
This one fails at least one test, so it is not on the list. It is comfortably, boringly harmless.
Not on NASA's Sentry impact-risk watch list. No further action, no thoughts, head empty.
Its history with us
Every known pass this rock makes, 1900 to 2200. Dim dots are the past, green dots are still to come, the big orange ring is this one. The dashed line is the Moon's distance, so anything below it is closer than the Moon. Almost nothing is.
| Date | Miss distance | Speed |
|---|---|---|
| 13th November 2063 | 47.6 LD · 18,317,378 km | 8.3 km/s |
| 7th June 2072 | 42.0 LD · 16,141,599 km | 6.0 km/s |
| 29th May 2081 | 33.7 LD · 12,964,435 km | 8.6 km/s |
| 17th November 2082 | 165.5 LD · 63,665,316 km | 16.9 km/s |
| 19th May 2090 | 129.0 LD · 49,619,942 km | 14.6 km/s |
| 22nd February 2091 | 120.1 LD · 46,200,464 km | 4.8 km/s |
| 12th November 2091 | 75.4 LD · 28,992,731 km | 10.3 km/s |
| 11th June 2100 | 69.3 LD · 26,669,525 km | 6.1 km/s |
| 22nd November 2100 | 39.6 LD · 15,214,436 km | 6.6 km/s |
| 1st June 2109 | 19.5 LD · 7,509,617 km | 7.8 km/s |
By the numbers
- Estimated mass
- 33,868 tonnes to 378,652 tonnesVolume of a sphere at NASA's smallest and largest width estimates, times 3,000 kg per cubic metre (typical rock). Real shapes are lumpier, so treat it as a ballpark.
- Swimming pools of rock
- 19 Olympic poolsSphere volume at the middle width estimate, divided by 2,500 cubic metres per Olympic pool.
- Impact energy, if it hit
- 1.2 megatons to 13 megatonsHalf mass times speed squared, at the small and large width estimates, converted to TNT (1 kiloton is 4.184 trillion joules). A rock this far away is not going to do this.
- Speed against escape velocity
- 1.5 timesIts speed relative to Earth, divided by the 11.186 km/s needed to leave Earth's gravity. It is travelling a lot faster than we can throw things.
- Speed against Earth in orbit
- 0.57 timesDivided by Earth's own orbital speed of 29.78 km/s around the Sun.
- Time to cross the UK
- 57.0 secondsLand's End to John o' Groats is about 970 km in a straight line. Divided by its speed.
- Time to fly the miss distance
- 43.7 daysThe miss distance divided by its speed. This is how long it needs to cover a gap of that size, which is a measure of how near or far the pass is.
- Light takes to cross the gap
- 214.4 secondsMiss distance divided by the speed of light.
- Width from brightness alone
- 28 to 62 mAstronomers estimate size from how bright an asteroid is (H 24.9) and how reflective it is. A shiny rock (albedo 0.25) is smaller than a dark one (0.05) for the same brightness. NASA's own estimate above uses the same idea.
- Laps of the Sun since first spotted
- 0.123 days of observation divided by its 409-day year.
- Known close approaches, 1900 to 2200
- 420 inside the Moon's orbit and 1 within ten lunar distances.
- Closest pass in that period
- 9.33 lunar distancesOn 1st June 1997.
- Next visit after this one
- 16th May 2034At 152.2 lunar distances. Closer than this time.
- Average gap between visits
- 5.7 yearsThe span of the record divided by the number of gaps between approaches.
- Rank by size
- 30 of 42Among every asteroid this site has tracked, biggest first.
- Rank by closeness
- 32 of 42Among every asteroid this site has tracked, using each one's most recent pass, closest first.
- Rank by speed
- 15 of 42Among every asteroid this site has tracked, fastest first.
How reliable are these?
Width, speed, miss distance and orbit come straight from NASA. Mass, energy, volume and the rankings are our own arithmetic on top, and the assumptions are written beside each one. NASA publishes a range for width because nobody has seen most of these rocks up close, so wherever we show one number it uses the biggest estimate and says so.
Will asteroid 2016 WL48 hit Earth? Questions answered
Will asteroid 2016 WL48 hit Earth?
No. 2016 WL48 passes Earth on 17th November 2026 at 167.1 lunar distances (64,270,993 km), which is 167.1 times the distance to the Moon. It is not on NASA's potentially hazardous list. It is not on NASA's Sentry impact-risk watch list.
How big is asteroid 2016 WL48?
NASA estimates it is between 28 m and 62 m wide, which at the top end is about 0.6 football pitches long. Nobody has seen it up close, so the width is an estimate from its brightness.
How fast is asteroid 2016 WL48 travelling?
17.0 km/s relative to Earth at closest approach, about 61,254 km/h (38,062 mph). That is 2.2 times the speed of the International Space Station.
Is 2016 WL48 a potentially hazardous asteroid?
No. NASA gives the label to asteroids whose orbit comes within 0.05 astronomical units of Earth's (about 7.5 million km) and which are bigger than roughly 140 m. 2016 WL48 has an absolute magnitude of 24.9 and its orbit comes within 0.012 AU of Earth's.
When is asteroid 2016 WL48's next close approach?
After this pass, the next one in NASA's record is on 17th November 2026, at 167.1 lunar distances.
Unhelpful facts
- 259 basketballs wide. Somebody in the NBA has already asked for the numbers.
- 0.16 Empire State Buildings tall, if you insist on laying New York on its side.
- Flying a gap that size takes it 43.7 days, which is 3,147 twenty-minute naps. Recommended.
- In the 43.7 days it takes to fly a gap that size, you could drink 3,147 cups of tea. Most would go cold.
- Light crosses the gap in 214.38 seconds. That is not enough time to say "what was that".
- Roughly 95 car tyres wide. Check the tread before you worry about the rock.
- If this one did hit Earth, your next meeting would be cancelled. Look on the bright side.
- As fast as 1,369 Usain Bolts at top speed, none of whom have been told.
- 175 large pizzas wide. Delivery in thirty minutes or it is free (it will not be free).
- 42.96% of the way to the Sun. Nobody is cancelling summer.
- A snail would need 155,997 years to cover the gap. The snail would take the day off.
- At its speed it covers a gap the size of its miss distance in 43.7 days. A group chat would still be picking a restaurant.