At a glance
- Width
- 13 to 28 m
- about 102 bananas
- Speed
- 10.38 km/s
- 37,367 km/h · 23,219 mph
- Misses us by
- 39.8 lunar
- 15,309,843 km · 9,513,092 miles
- First spotted by us
- 13th November 2026
- 1 page view
How far is "close"?
Same gap, ranked against places you have heard of, on a log scale because the Sun is awkwardly far away.
How big is it, really?
NASA only estimates the width, so we show the biggest guess. Log scale again. Everest is just there to make everything else look reasonable.
How fast is it going?
Speed relative to Earth at closest approach. The International Space Station is the fastest thing most of us will ever stand under. This lot would lap it.
If it hit (it will not)
Rough impact energy at the biggest size estimate, assuming solid rock, in tonnes, kilotons and megatons of TNT, which is how everyone who has to do this maths measures it. Treat it as a ballpark. The point stands: no impact is scheduled.
Where it actually lives
A top-down view of the orbit, to scale, with Earth's and Mars's orbits for company. The tilt of the orbit is ignored, so treat the shape as right and the exact position as roughly right. The Sun is the orange dot in the middle.
- Orbit class
- ATEAten: crosses Earth's orbit while spending most of its time inside it, between us and the Sun.
- Year length
- 0.70 Earth years (257 days)One lap of the Sun. Your commute is shorter, and so is your patience.
- Eccentricity
- 0.308How squashed the orbit is. 0 is a perfect circle, 1 is "leaving". Noticeably oval. Mildly dramatic.
- Tilt
- 7.7°The angle of its orbit against the flat plane the planets share. Slightly tipsy.
- Closest to the Sun
- 0.55 AU82 million km. One AU is the distance from Earth to the Sun.
- Furthest from the Sun
- 1.03 AU155 million km. Never leaves the inner solar system.
- Closest orbit-to-orbit gap
- 0.030 AUIf you only compare the two orbits, not where the planets are, they come within 12 lunar distances. The rock is rarely there at the same time as us, which is the entire reason we are still here.
- Observations used
- 26NASA has measured this one 26 times. It has been stalked thoroughly.
- Watched for
- 1 days2019-12-02 to 2019-12-03. Not long, so the orbit is still being refined and the rock is still a bit of a stranger.
- Orbit uncertainty
- 7 out of 90 means we know exactly where it is going. 9 means a shrug. Lower is better.
Is it actually hazardous?
This one fails at least one test, so it is not on the list. It is comfortably, boringly harmless.
Not on NASA's Sentry impact-risk watch list. No further action, no thoughts, head empty.
Its history with us
Every known pass this rock makes, 1900 to 2200. Dim dots are the past, green dots are still to come, the big orange ring is this one. The dashed line is the Moon's distance, so anything below it is closer than the Moon. Almost nothing is.
| Date | Miss distance | Speed |
|---|---|---|
| 11th January 2065 | 46.9 LD · 18,030,952 km | 9.8 km/s |
| 21st November 2066 | 119.0 LD · 45,781,351 km | 17.2 km/s |
| 25th November 2073 | 167.1 LD · 64,253,755 km | 21.4 km/s |
| 17th July 2076 | 176.5 LD · 67,888,049 km | 15.6 km/s |
| 3rd January 2077 | 180.5 LD · 69,411,684 km | 22.1 km/s |
| 3rd December 2078 | 15.6 LD · 5,988,873 km | 7.1 km/s |
| 24th May 2081 | 178.5 LD · 68,653,866 km | 16.8 km/s |
| 31st July 2083 | 169.8 LD · 65,306,411 km | 14.0 km/s |
| 8th January 2084 | 138.6 LD · 53,287,363 km | 18.4 km/s |
| 19th November 2085 | 21.8 LD · 8,384,315 km | 8.8 km/s |
By the numbers
- Estimated mass
- 3,234 tonnes to 36,161 tonnesVolume of a sphere at NASA's smallest and largest width estimates, times 3,000 kg per cubic metre (typical rock). Real shapes are lumpier, so treat it as a ballpark.
- Swimming pools of rock
- 2 Olympic poolsSphere volume at the middle width estimate, divided by 2,500 cubic metres per Olympic pool.
- Impact energy, if it hit
- 42 kilotons to 466 kilotonsHalf mass times speed squared, at the small and large width estimates, converted to TNT (1 kiloton is 4.184 trillion joules). A rock this far away is not going to do this.
- Speed against escape velocity
- 0.9 timesIts speed relative to Earth, divided by the 11.186 km/s needed to leave Earth's gravity. It is travelling a lot faster than we can throw things.
- Speed against Earth in orbit
- 0.35 timesDivided by Earth's own orbital speed of 29.78 km/s around the Sun.
- Time to cross the UK
- 93.5 secondsLand's End to John o' Groats is about 970 km in a straight line. Divided by its speed.
- Time to fly the miss distance
- 17.1 daysThe miss distance divided by its speed. This is how long it needs to cover a gap of that size, which is a measure of how near or far the pass is.
- Light takes to cross the gap
- 51.1 secondsMiss distance divided by the speed of light.
- Width from brightness alone
- 13 to 28 mAstronomers estimate size from how bright an asteroid is (H 26.6) and how reflective it is. A shiny rock (albedo 0.25) is smaller than a dark one (0.05) for the same brightness. NASA's own estimate above uses the same idea.
- Laps of the Sun since first spotted
- 0.01 days of observation divided by its 257-day year.
- Known close approaches, 1900 to 2200
- 330 inside the Moon's orbit and 0 within ten lunar distances.
- Closest pass in that period
- 13.35 lunar distancesOn 29th November 2019.
- Next visit after this one
- 13th June 2029At 182.4 lunar distances. No closer than this time.
- Average gap between visits
- 3.4 yearsThe span of the record divided by the number of gaps between approaches.
- Rank by size
- 37 of 42Among every asteroid this site has tracked, biggest first.
- Rank by closeness
- 8 of 42Among every asteroid this site has tracked, using each one's most recent pass, closest first.
- Rank by speed
- 30 of 42Among every asteroid this site has tracked, fastest first.
How reliable are these?
Width, speed, miss distance and orbit come straight from NASA. Mass, energy, volume and the rankings are our own arithmetic on top, and the assumptions are written beside each one. NASA publishes a range for width because nobody has seen most of these rocks up close, so wherever we show one number it uses the biggest estimate and says so.
Will asteroid 2019 XL hit Earth? Questions answered
Will asteroid 2019 XL hit Earth?
No. 2019 XL passes Earth on 17th November 2026 at 39.8 lunar distances (15,309,843 km), which is 39.8 times the distance to the Moon. It is not on NASA's potentially hazardous list. It is not on NASA's Sentry impact-risk watch list.
How big is asteroid 2019 XL?
NASA estimates it is between 13 m and 28 m wide, which at the top end is about 0.3 football pitches long. Nobody has seen it up close, so the width is an estimate from its brightness.
How fast is asteroid 2019 XL travelling?
10.4 km/s relative to Earth at closest approach, about 37,367 km/h (23,219 mph). That is 1.4 times the speed of the International Space Station.
Is 2019 XL a potentially hazardous asteroid?
No. NASA gives the label to asteroids whose orbit comes within 0.05 astronomical units of Earth's (about 7.5 million km) and which are bigger than roughly 140 m. 2019 XL has an absolute magnitude of 26.6 and its orbit comes within 0.030 AU of Earth's.
When is asteroid 2019 XL's next close approach?
After this pass, the next one in NASA's record is on 17th November 2026, at 39.8 lunar distances.
Unhelpful facts
- If it did hit, that would release roughly 466 kilotons of TNT, assuming solid rock. It will not, so enjoy the number.
- It is moving 106 times faster than a sports car, and has never once paid a congestion charge.
- 79 large pizzas wide. Delivery in thirty minutes or it is free (it will not be free).
- Line up 4 elephants to match its width. The elephants would like to be consulted first.
- About 0.27 of a football pitch long. VAR would be unimpressed.
- In the 17.1 days it takes to fly a gap that size, you could drink 1,229 cups of tea. Most would go cold.
- 10.23% of the way to the Sun. Nobody is cancelling summer.
- At this speed it covers the distance to the Moon in 10.3 hours. Your train replacement bus takes longer.
- As fast as 835 Usain Bolts at top speed, none of whom have been told.
- Roughly 43 car tyres wide. Check the tread before you worry about the rock.
- If this one did hit Earth, your next meeting would be cancelled. Look on the bright side.
- At its speed it covers a gap the size of its miss distance in 17.1 days. A group chat would still be picking a restaurant.