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At a glance
- Width
- 462 to 1,033 m
- about 3,736 bananas
- Speed
- 16.57 km/s
- 59,645 km/h · 37,062 mph
- Misses us by
- 150.3 lunar
- 57,802,791 km · 35,916,978 miles
- First spotted by us
- 13th November 2026
- 2 page views
How far is "close"?
Same gap, ranked against places you have heard of, on a log scale because the Sun is awkwardly far away.
How big is it, really?
NASA only estimates the width, so we show the biggest guess. Log scale again. Everest is just there to make everything else look reasonable.
How fast is it going?
Speed relative to Earth at closest approach. The International Space Station is the fastest thing most of us will ever stand under. This lot would lap it.
If it hit (it will not)
Rough impact energy at the biggest size estimate, assuming solid rock, in tonnes, kilotons and megatons of TNT, which is how everyone who has to do this maths measures it. Treat it as a ballpark. The point stands: no impact is scheduled.
Where it actually lives
A top-down view of the orbit, to scale, with Earth's and Mars's orbits for company. The tilt of the orbit is ignored, so treat the shape as right and the exact position as roughly right. The Sun is the orange dot in the middle.
- Orbit class
- APOApollo: crosses Earth's orbit, but spends most of its time further out than us. The most common troublemaker type.
- Year length
- 3.45 Earth years (1,260 days)One lap of the Sun. Your commute is shorter, and so is your patience.
- Eccentricity
- 0.691How squashed the orbit is. 0 is a perfect circle, 1 is "leaving". Very stretched. This rock commutes the long way round.
- Tilt
- 19.7°The angle of its orbit against the flat plane the planets share. Slightly tipsy.
- Closest to the Sun
- 0.71 AU106 million km. One AU is the distance from Earth to the Sun.
- Furthest from the Sun
- 3.86 AU578 million km. Out past Mars.
- Closest orbit-to-orbit gap
- 0.010 AUIf you only compare the two orbits, not where the planets are, they come within 4 lunar distances. The rock is rarely there at the same time as us, which is the entire reason we are still here.
- Observations used
- 307NASA has measured this one 307 times. It has been stalked thoroughly.
- Watched for
- 17.1 years2003-04-01 to 2020-04-21. Long enough to know it well.
- Orbit uncertainty
- 0 out of 90 means we know exactly where it is going. 9 means a shrug. Lower is better.
Is it actually hazardous?
This one crosses both lines, which is why NASA flags it. Flagged is not the same as aimed: the orbit is well measured and the next approach misses by 150.3 lunar distances.
Not on NASA's Sentry impact-risk watch list. No further action, no thoughts, head empty.
Its history with us
Every known pass this rock makes, 1900 to 2200. Dim dots are the past, green dots are still to come, the big orange ring is this one. The dashed line is the Moon's distance, so anything below it is closer than the Moon. Almost nothing is.
| Date | Miss distance | Speed |
|---|---|---|
| 17th November 2026 (this one) | 150.3 LD · 57,802,791 km | 16.6 km/s |
| 2nd September 2033 | 50.8 LD · 19,535,123 km | 24.1 km/s |
| 4th March 2051 | 189.6 LD · 72,928,050 km | 33.3 km/s |
| 28th January 2058 | 113.1 LD · 43,501,641 km | 14.1 km/s |
| 22nd September 2064 | 63.6 LD · 24,457,879 km | 16.9 km/s |
| 20th August 2071 | 151.1 LD · 58,125,151 km | 31.1 km/s |
| 15th February 2089 | 72.8 LD · 28,003,113 km | 23.1 km/s |
| 30th November 2095 | 153.2 LD · 58,927,433 km | 16.0 km/s |
| 12th September 2102 | 10.4 LD · 3,985,542 km | 20.2 km/s |
| 25th February 2127 | 125.6 LD · 48,285,809 km | 28.5 km/s |
By the numbers
- Estimated mass
- 154.8 million tonnes to 1.7 billion tonnesVolume of a sphere at NASA's smallest and largest width estimates, times 3,000 kg per cubic metre (typical rock). Real shapes are lumpier, so treat it as a ballpark.
- Swimming pools of rock
- 87,435 Olympic poolsSphere volume at the middle width estimate, divided by 2,500 cubic metres per Olympic pool.
- Impact energy, if it hit
- 5,078 megatons to 56,776 megatonsHalf mass times speed squared, at the small and large width estimates, converted to TNT (1 kiloton is 4.184 trillion joules). A rock this far away is not going to do this.
- Speed against escape velocity
- 1.5 timesIts speed relative to Earth, divided by the 11.186 km/s needed to leave Earth's gravity. It is travelling a lot faster than we can throw things.
- Speed against Earth in orbit
- 0.56 timesDivided by Earth's own orbital speed of 29.78 km/s around the Sun.
- Time to cross the UK
- 58.5 secondsLand's End to John o' Groats is about 970 km in a straight line. Divided by its speed.
- Time to fly the miss distance
- 40.4 daysThe miss distance divided by its speed. This is how long it needs to cover a gap of that size, which is a measure of how near or far the pass is.
- Light takes to cross the gap
- 192.8 secondsMiss distance divided by the speed of light.
- Width from brightness alone
- 462 to 1,033 mAstronomers estimate size from how bright an asteroid is (H 18.8) and how reflective it is. A shiny rock (albedo 0.25) is smaller than a dark one (0.05) for the same brightness. NASA's own estimate above uses the same idea.
- Laps of the Sun since first spotted
- 4.96,230 days of observation divided by its 1,260-day year.
- Known close approaches, 1900 to 2200
- 280 inside the Moon's orbit and 0 within ten lunar distances.
- Closest pass in that period
- 10.36 lunar distancesOn 12th September 2102.
- Next visit after this one
- 2nd September 2033At 50.8 lunar distances. Closer than this time.
- Average gap between visits
- 10.1 yearsThe span of the record divided by the number of gaps between approaches.
- Rank by size
- 3 of 42Among every asteroid this site has tracked, biggest first.
- Rank by closeness
- 27 of 42Among every asteroid this site has tracked, using each one's most recent pass, closest first.
- Rank by speed
- 18 of 42Among every asteroid this site has tracked, fastest first.
How reliable are these?
Width, speed, miss distance and orbit come straight from NASA. Mass, energy, volume and the rankings are our own arithmetic on top, and the assumptions are written beside each one. NASA publishes a range for width because nobody has seen most of these rocks up close, so wherever we show one number it uses the biggest estimate and says so.
Will asteroid 2020 DR2 hit Earth? Questions answered
Will asteroid 2020 DR2 hit Earth?
No. 2020 DR2 passes Earth on 17th November 2026 at 150.3 lunar distances (57,802,791 km), which is 150.3 times the distance to the Moon. NASA flags it as potentially hazardous, which describes its size and orbit, not an impact course: its path is well measured and it misses Earth. It is not on NASA's Sentry impact-risk watch list.
How big is asteroid 2020 DR2?
NASA estimates it is between 462 m and 1,033 m wide, which at the top end is about 9.8 football pitches long. Nobody has seen it up close, so the width is an estimate from its brightness.
How fast is asteroid 2020 DR2 travelling?
16.6 km/s relative to Earth at closest approach, about 59,645 km/h (37,062 mph). That is 2.2 times the speed of the International Space Station.
Is 2020 DR2 a potentially hazardous asteroid?
Yes. NASA gives the label to asteroids whose orbit comes within 0.05 astronomical units of Earth's (about 7.5 million km) and which are bigger than roughly 140 m. 2020 DR2 has an absolute magnitude of 18.8 and its orbit comes within 0.010 AU of Earth's.
When is asteroid 2020 DR2's next close approach?
After this pass, the next one in NASA's record is on 17th November 2026, at 150.3 lunar distances.
Unhelpful facts
- 4,303 basketballs wide. Somebody in the NBA has already asked for the numbers.
- It could overtake 66 commercial jets, and it would not even signal.
- 2.71 Empire State Buildings tall, if you insist on laying New York on its side.
- Flying a gap that size takes it 40.4 days, which is 2,907 twenty-minute naps. Recommended.
- About 9.8 football pitches long. Still no better than a mid-table side.
- Roughly 1,589 car tyres wide. Check the tread before you worry about the rock.
- If this one did hit Earth, your next meeting would be cancelled. Look on the bright side.
- It is moving 170 times faster than a sports car, and has never once paid a congestion charge.
- Light crosses the gap in 192.81 seconds. That is not enough time to say "what was that".
- As fast as 1,333 Usain Bolts at top speed, none of whom have been told.
- A UK train would take 66.0 years to cross the same gap, plus delays "due to a train being late".
- Line up 172 elephants to match its width. The elephants would like to be consulted first.